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缓冲迅速耗尽！汇丰警告：新一轮全球粮食危机要来了_我的网站

A |     　　随着全球农业供应链深处多重风险加速交织，华尔街投行近期正接二连三地发出重磅预警：一场跨度更长、波及更广的全球粮食危机风险已然悄然积聚，并即将迎来彻底爆发的“风暴时刻”。　　上周，摩根大通分析师已发出了“明年或爆发全球粮食危机”的警示。而汇丰银行分析师在本周二的最新报告中亦敲响警钟，指出谷物供应趋紧、厄尔尼诺现象、海上航运要道受阻，以及由此引发的供应挤压，正推高谷物价格。　　汇丰银行主攻澳新地区及全球大宗商品的经济学家Jamie Culling在周二发布的研报《天气与战争推高食品价格》中指出，这种供应挤压已在现货市场显现。    Bollywood actor Ranveer Singh and celebrity look designer Preetisheel Singh shared a touching exchange on social media, celebrating their strong professional bond and the hard work behind their recently released film Dhurandhar. Actor Ranveer Singh and renowned look designer Preetisheel Singh warmed hearts online after Preetisheel posted a heartfelt appreciation message praising Ranveer’s dedication and transformation for the film Dhurandhar. The emotional interaction quickly spread across social media.     Sharing behind-the-scenes photos from their time working together, Preetisheel wrote, "The man of the hour - Ranveer Singh @ranveersingh You never cease to amaze! We’ve worked on so many projects together, and somehow, you still manage to keep things fresh with your consistency, focus, and the way you immerse yourself into every role, leaving very little to chance. Dhurandhar was simply taking it to the next level. It’s been years of trust, a lot of laughs, and solid teamwork. You’ve built your path with hard work, and there’s still so much more you’re going to do. I’m glad to be part of that journey… always rooting for you."     Check out her post here:                                                                            View this post on Instagram          A post shared by Preetisheel Singh (@preetisheel)               Ranveer Singh responded with a message full of gratitude and warmth. He wrote, "Apni jodi number one hai madam How grateful I am to be a small part of your glorious journey! You are simply the best! Thank you for keeping me grounded. Thank you for guiding me. Thank you for always looking out for me. You have a very large heart and a mighty, mighty spirit! An admirable leader of an absolutely stellar team! How much they all love and respect you is only a testament to your leadership! God bless you Preeti Mam. To many many more!"     Fans celebrated the mutual respect and strong teamwork showcased between the actor and the designer, calling it one of the most genuine celebrity exchanges online recently.          Directed and written by Aditya Dhar, Dhurandhar features a powerful cast including Akshaye Khanna, R. Madhavan, Arjun Rampal, Sanjay Dutt, Sara Arjun and Rakesh Bedi. Ranveer Singh plays Hamza Ali Mazari in a high-intensity role that promises gripping action and emotional depth. The second part of the film is scheduled to release on March 19, 2026, continuing the thrilling spy saga.Also Read: Deepika Padukone and Ranveer Singh’s exchange over Ranveer’s Madame Tussauds statues wins hearts。截至7月，涵盖小麦、玉米、大麦和稻米在内的谷物整体价格同比上涨了22%。　　“今年年初充足的供应和库存曾有助于抑制价格飙升，但这一缓冲现在正开始迅速耗尽，”Culling向客户发出警告。　　农业供应链面临多重冲击　　Culling指出，农业供应链正面临多重冲击，包括中东冲突的影响、近期俄乌战争的升级，以及极端天气事件——如北半球热浪和日益加剧的厄尔尼诺现象。　　根据美国农业部(USDA)的最新预测，2026/27年度全球谷物产量预计将跌至低于消费量，这将是自2020/21年度以来的首次供需倒挂，也是自2006/07年度以来最大规模的供给缺口。　　随着作物单产下降，库销比正面临进一步收紧。　　农产品价格已出现上涨。谷物价格同比上涨22%，而可可和咖啡等部分“高档食品”的价格也大幅飙升。　　中东冲突已成为农产品市场的主要扰动因素。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续制约着化肥和硫磺的供应，导致前端生产成本居高不下；而部分国家为应对供应紧张而实施的出口限制，进一步加剧了市场压力。　　俄乌冲突近期的升级则导致黑海航线的出货量骤降。

B | 该地区承担着全球近三分之一的小麦出口量和五分之一的化肥贸易量，在谷物收割正全面展开的关键节点，这构成了重大供应链隐患。此外，俄罗斯本土炼油厂受损也间接推高了柴油等能源成本。　　天气因素同样构成了巨大威胁：北半球热浪、日益加剧的厄尔尼诺现象以及印度洋偶极子(IOD)呈正相位，都给农产品供应带来了下行风险。尽管历次厄尔尼诺对不同区域和作物的具体影响不尽相同，但普遍规律是导致作物减产、农价上浮。　　受天气相关风险影响，可可价格在过去几个月已飙升了50%，咖啡价格也随之上涨。天气风险还可能引发非线性连锁反应，例如更多病虫害疫情爆发。　　汇丰最后总结称，供给侧的剧烈波动，将继续主导农产品的价格走势。这意味着未来一段时间内，市场将面临平均价格更高、波动性更剧烈，以及全球粮食不安全状况进一步加剧的严峻挑战。（文章来源：财联社）。

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